I've long thought that the Electoral College system of electing a president is broken.  Not just because it's possible to win the presidency without winning the popular vote (as happened in 1824, 1876, 1888, and 2000, and as almost happened in 1976), not just because it favors a two-party system, but mainly because of its winner-take-all nature, which effectively disenfranchises anyone who doesn't vote for the winner of their particular state.  (Maine and Nebraska are the exceptions here.) 

Instead, I favor -- or at least used to favor -- proportional allocation of electoral votes. (More on that "used to favor" later.)

On Tuesday, Colorado voted down Amendment 36, which would have allocated their electoral votes proportionally.  I wondered how this election would have shaped up if Colorado -- and every other state -- had followed through with this.  So I looked up the exact text of Amendment 36, in order to find out what rules were used to deal with the fractions. (They're pretty straightforward -- fractions of electoral votes are rounded to the nearest whole number of electoral votes. If the total number of electoral votes is fewer than the state's allocation of electoral votes, an extra electoral vote goes to the ticket that gets the most popular votes. If, on the other hand, the total number is greater than the state's allocation of electoral votes, the ticket that has the lowest popular vote (but still has electoral votes) will lose one electoral vote. So basically, if the number of electoral votes has to be tweaked in order to fit the allocation, winners are rewarded and losers punished.)

I got each state's vote totals and percentages from CNN's election results page, plugged them (and their assigned number of electoral votes) into OnlineConversion.com's percentage calculator, and went to town.

Final result? Bush still won. He got 278 electoral votes, Kerry got 259 260, and Libertarian Party candidate Michael Badnarik got one electoral vote (in California.) (See the "Another Addendum" below -- I made an error in my math.)

I only had to adjust the votes to fit the assigned allocations in two states -- Massachusetts and New York, each of which picked up an additional Kerry vote. Seven states ended up each having a tie in the number of electoral votes going to each party. Many more -- in fact, 25 more -- differed by only one electoral vote. (This is thrown off slightly by the seven states that have the minimum number of three electoral votes and split their vote. DC is the only "state" that had three votes that all went to the same candidate.) This was an extraordinarily close election.

Another disclaimer: Of course, had this system been in place nationwide, the campaigns would have had different strategies. Rather than trying to win the all-important swing states, candidates would have to focus on individual voters in every state. So in that sense, it isn't really fair to apply these rules to the numbers for this past election.

I also wondered if the split votes would have changed the way the election played out Tuesday night. So I assumed (there's a lot of assumptions flying around here, in case you haven't noticed) that all the electoral votes for a state would be projected at the same time. I looked at Media Matters' page on when each network called each state, and semi-arbitrarily chose CNN, because I used their vote data, because they were pretty much in the middle of the pack as far as when they called states (and, because they were who I watched on Tuesday night.)

The results? Interestingly enough, we still wouldn't have known exactly who won until Wednesday. And Ohio would still put Bush over the top; the last state projected before Ohio was Wisconsin, which CNN called at 5:01am EST. Under this proportional system, the tally at 5:01am would be Bush 261, Kerry 244, Badnarik 1. (Because of the error, that would actually be Bush 261, Kerry 245.)

Without a doubt, there are drawbacks to this system, the chief one being that it's much harder to get a majority of 270 electoral votes to win. Any significant third-party candidate, such as Perot in 1992 or even Nader in 2000, would effectively prevent this from happening, and throw the election into the House of Representatives.

But, it's better than a straight popular vote. A direct election would mean that the candidates would spend all their time and money in the biggest cities, while the smaller towns and rural areas would be all but ignored. The unavoidable economics of campaigning in the TV age would necessarily force candidates to concentrate their time, money, and message in the centers of highest population density, and minimize time and money spent in more rural areas of the country. New York, Chicago, and L.A. would have disproportionate clout in the election of the President.

Looks like instant runoff voting is the way to go.

(Note: I plan, when I have more time, to flesh this post out with historical election results to see how past elections would have shaken out. Maybe next week.)

ADDENDUM:  Here's a good analysis of Amendment 36, from Findlaw's Writ.

ANOTHER ADDENDUM:  Check out the comment below from Shane Killian.  He caught an error in my math -- Badnarik shouldn't have gotten the one electoral vote in CA.

Comments

[Ayelet]

OK, this is fascinating. I've long wondered what would happen if we revamped the electoral college system, especially since (as you pointed out) it favors a two-party system. And we've seen that a two-party system just isn't working anymore. This country desperately needs more options besides "bad and worse."

Colorado was on the right track with 36. That's a start.

[Jason Whong]

Ayelet, if you don't like bad and worse, pick better. Go with a different party. And tell your friends to do the same. As long as people are invested in the two major parties, they will continue to dominate...

[Jason Whong]

Vidiot, this is some really fascinating stuff. I have wondered myself what could happen with proportional electoral vote allocation. I'm passing this link around!

[Vidiot]

Thanks!

When the data come out here, I plan to do the same thing, but using the system that Maine and Nebraska use.

[lpo]

IRV is technically flawed, but there are some alternatives to IRV that would be more fair and ensure that voter preference is honored. See http://www.electionmethods.org.

[unstableman]

Vidiot,

This is a very good article. Very interesting, especially since I was watching amendment 36 very closely on election night.

I'm actually, going through and running a hypothetical results test using IRV. I will be posting the results on my blog soon.

[Shane Killian]

There's a problem with your math here. As much as I'd love for Bandarik to have received an electoral vote (shoot, I'd love to have him in the White House!), the math just isn't there for it. Here are the raw numbers for California:

Kerry: 6,250,561
Bush: 5,114,795
Badnarik: 46,392
Cobb: 37,119
Peltier: 25,101
Peroutka: 23,993
Total: 11,497,961

The Colorado amendment says you round to the nearest elector. With 209,053.84 votes per elector, a candidate would have to get half of that number in raw votes, or 104,527, to be able to round up to one elector. So Kerry, with 29.899 electoral proportion, would get 30 electoral votes, while Bush, with 24.4, would have only received 24. This is as you have it. But Badnarik only received 0.221 of an electoral proportion, and it needs to be .5 or greater to round up to 1 and get the electoral vote. So the additional vote would have gone to Kerry, giving him 31 electoral votes in California.

Sorry...

[Vidiot]

Shoot, you're right. I was going off the percentages listed in the CNN results page, not by the numbers of raw votes. That had Badnarik as having 1% of 55 electoral votes, so it worked out to .55, which gave him the one vote in my count.

Thanks for catching that.

[Ben Hzell]

I agree with most of what you said, but I still think that a straightforward popular vote is the only way to go if we really believe in Democracy. I was troubled when you said that big cities would be too powerful if we had a popular vote, because it is in actuality not a CITY that is voting for the president, but the millions of AMERICANS who live within that city and who should all have an equal vote. Broad geographic support is less important than how many American citizens support the candidate. I always felt that land should not elect the president, human beings should, whether they live in a city or in a rural area. It is also interesting that urban areas tend to be more Democratic, and rural areas tend to be more Republican. Clearly the Electoral College is flawed for many reasons.

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